Durable Value: An Investor's Podcast
Durable Value: An Investor's Podcast
Durable Value Ep. 96 | Risk Perception vs. Reality in Real Estate
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In this episode of Durable Value, Joe and Ryan discuss how most institutional investors skip secondary and tertiary real estate markets; but what if the "perceived risk" is actually lower than primary markets? Here we break down the data behind secondary market investing: why volatility is lower, why liquidity is stronger than you'd expect, and why institutional capital clustering in gateway cities may be the real risk. We also share a real-world example of selling an office building in 2026, and generating a 16% gross IRR, to prove the thesis.
0:00 – Introduction: Secondary Markets & The Risk Mispricing Thesis
1:28 – The 20-Year Data Study (GFC, COVID, Rate Hikes)
4:36 – Institutional Capital as a Predictor of Oversupply
5:07 – Why Capital Clusters in Primary Markets (Career Risk & Benchmarks)
7:01 – The Liquidity Myth: Where Transactions Actually Happen
8:04 – Are Secondary Markets Becoming Institutionalized?
11:34 – How to Execute: Macro Trends + Local Boots on the Ground